prediction map based on new assumptions: Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. Previous maps used linear regression on the numbers to generate the prediction. This one uses the following assumptions: voters who already have made a choice will stick to it; the undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry); If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%, otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000); the minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000). Currently, it suggests 311 Electoral Votes for Kerry to 227 for Bush.
Michael Boyle's weblog
Wrywriter says
I think Florida will go Republican, seeing how Jed is there to make sure it does.
Michael says
I’m not quite that cynical, though I wouldn’t fall off my chair if it did go that way. But the hidden thing in this election is that African-Americans were and are very angry at what happened last time. They feel that as a community they were systematically disenfranchised, and are organizing to ensure that never happens again. There has been a registration drive like never before and there will be a huge get-out-the-vote and voter education effort.
I tend to think that those voters are very much underrepresented in polls, and if so, it’s not even going to be close.