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Situational Assessment 2017: Trump Edition – Deep Code

February 1, 2017 by Michael Boyle

I can’t vouch for Jordan Greenhall – I am unfamiliar with his work – but this piece is definitely worth a read (and a few re-reads). It’s a very detailed theoretical investigation into what’s going on at the moment from a writer that seemed very well-versed in system theory.

While many things have changed in the world in the past two years, 2016 saw what looks like a phase transition in the political domain. While the overall phenomenon is global in scale and includes Brexit and other movements throughout Europe, I want to focus specifically on the victory of the “Trump Insurgency” and drill down into detail on how this state change will play out.

Source: Jordan Greenhall: Situational Assessment 2017: Trump Edition – Deep Code

Tags: Analysis, Medium, System Theory, Trump, US Politics

Why people are afraid of Trump: foreign relations

January 22, 2017 by Michael Boyle

Many supporters of President Trump have been getting very upset at the rhetoric from the anti-Trump people, and a common refrain is that they suffer from “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and are engaging in dangerous hyperbole when they say Trump is “dangerous” and insist that they are literally afraid.

Here’s the case for what it is about Trump’s foreign relations that makes people afraid. It’s quite simple – on two (and it could grow to 3) of the 4/5 major foreign relations issues facing the US, Trump has – by just Day 2 – completely blown up 20 or more years of established US policy – policies that have endured through both Democratic and Republican administrations and had achieved practical consensus status in the US.

First – the entire basis for any political or trade relationship with China is the One China policy. The Telegraph published a great “explainer” piece on this issue in December – basically the idea is that formally, China including Taiwan is regarded as an integral state, while at the same time Taiwan’s independence and new democracy is allowed to exist and grow and even thrive.

Is it a good policy? Maybe, or maybe not – on the one hand, it’s absurd on its face. On the other, though, it’s the only policy that we’ve had – it literally undergirds the entire relationship between China and the rest of the world not just the US.

Why are people afraid? We’re afraid because there is almost no evidence at all that blowing up the One China policy was deliberate, that it was considered in advance and that some better policy that will serve the US or the rest of the world well has been anticipated. As far as anyone can tell, the world is being thrown into a void on this issue simply because Trump doesn’t know better. That’s scary.

Second – proposing to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is a monumental blunder – but he’s moving forward with the plan, an idea that threatens the stability of the entire region. The NYTimes published a debate feature about this issue at the end of December.

It’s not a question of whether the current situation is ideal – it’s far from ideal, it’s not even marginally good. But it’s like a climber on a cliff rising out of the ocean – the climber may only be resting on a tiny foothold 1/3 of the way up the cliff – but the water below is infested with sharks. This ledge might not be great, and the path to get further up the cliff may not be known – but the only thing that IS certain is that the shark-infested seas below are deadly. And that’s where Trump may be insisting that we go.

And again, the scary thing is that there’s no evidence whatsoever that Trump had any idea of the significance of such a move. So we could be thrust into a period of even more instability in the Middle East – and it very well might be by accident (at least as far as Trump is concerned – members of his entourage certainly know the dangers).

In both of these cases, the worst-case scenario is obvious: war. But the best-case scenarios are much less clear – and it’s not clear that in either situation, there’s a likelihood of a better outcome than we have today at the end of this road.

And don’t even get me started on NATO and the threat to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Both of these issues pale in comparison to what would likely happen if Trump blows that up as well…

Tags: Analysis, China, Israel, Middle East, NATO, NYTimes, Telegraph, Trump, War

Homer and Social Networks

June 20, 2013 by Michael Boyle

It has been two years since I was involved in social network mapping professionally but that doesn’t mean I’ve lost interest – I keep seeing interesting applications of these approaches as network mapping techniques continue to make the jump into all kinds of academic disciplines. The latest: The Remarkable Properties of Mythological Social Networks.

Basically – the social networks in The Odyssey (Homer, obv) are remarkably similar to real-life modern social networks, which is evidence that the epic poem is in fact based to some extent on real events and real people. Cool.

Tags: Analysis, Social Networks

Intro to Metadata analysis

June 17, 2013 by Michael Boyle

With all the discussion about the NSA and other organizations’ surveillance of online sources it’s important to understand what people are writing about. In fact, one of the chief complaints about journalistic coverage so far is that journalists seem to be getting the story more wrong than right – whether this is due to a fundamental lack of comprehension of the subject matter or for more wilful reasons is tough to assess.

Anyhow… earlier this month Kieran Healy published a super-interesting intro to “Metadata Analysis” – i.e., the analysis not of messages’ contents, but information about the messages: Using Metadata to find Paul Revere.

Tags: Analysis, Social Networks

Mary Meeker’s Annual Internet Roundup

October 18, 2007 by Michael Boyle

I’m not a guy who hangs on the proceedings of every big confererence and schmooze-fest. But… Today at the Web 2.0 Summit, Mary Meeker, a long-time internet investment analyst at Morgan Stanley, presented her annual Technology / Internet Trends report. Check it out if you’re interested in a macro look at the key trends affecting the internet economy. If you can’t wade through the original slides, Richard MacManus at Read/Write Web has posted a very nice summary.

Tags: Advertising, Analysis, Trends

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