after the events of September 11. It’s instructive, three and a half years later, to go and look at his early post-Sept-11 assessment. He proposed three scenarios. One, a quick attack and total victory over the Taliban and Bin Laden. Two, a legalistic approach over a longer event horizon. Three, a worst case scenario in which, “a general anti-US movement in the muslim countries erupts due to a botched US attack…”
Robb meant a botched attack on Afghanistan, I think. In Afghanistan, even with out bin Laden I think his optimistic first scenario played out pretty well. But then came Iraq, and it’s working out much much worse.
What was Robb’s prediction of the fallout from his worst case scenario?
the world loses confidence in the US-based economic system and a multipolar system emerges. A long protracted recession occurs. Many developing countries fall into chaos. The dollar collapses as capital flight occurs. Security concerns slow business activity. The world develops along multipolar lines with no one nation in a position to protect the overall system. The standard of living experienced by the western world drops by over 20%. We enter the world of cyberpunk world of Gibson where technology advances but virtually all other aspects of the world’s systems are inoperative. Countries and regions isolate themselves. Cost to the world economy? $300 trillion over 20 years.
