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Today was by-election day

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Today was by-election day

in three Quebec ridings, and it has proven to be as exciting as politics in Quebec have tended to be in recent years. It’s hard to see what has been happening both federally and provincially as nothing less than a sea-change, not a temporary post-scandal correction as many (including myself) feared it might have been.

The results are interesting. In my new riding, Outremont, the winner was Thomas Mulcair of the NDP (and the former provincial environment minister for the Quebec Liberal Party). In Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, the winner was Denis Lebel, a Conservative (and sitting Mayor). In Sainte-Hyacinthe, the winner was Ève-Mary Thai Thi Lac for the Bloc Quebecois. Most striking is that none of the Liberal candidates were successful, even now that the scandals are behind them and despite (well, maybe) having a new leader.

Some bullet-point reactions:

  • The NDP have to be careful how they interpret their victory in Outremont. If they have any illusions that this is a vote of confidence in the party as a whole or in Jack Layton, I think they’re sorely mistaken. On the positive side of things, Mulcair, and Mulcair alone, is the reason for their victory. If anything he has such personal popularity and universal respect that he won in spite of how the NDP is viewed in Quebec.
  • It is pretty shocking to “traditional” interpretations of Quebec voting tendencies that neither of the MPs in the Saguenay region are sitting for the Bloc Quebecois.
  • Stéphane Dion must be – should be – pretty scared. For the party with the second most seats in Parliament to not win any of three by-elections? Not a comfortable spot for the leader. When he was selected as leader of the Liberal Party, I was cautiously optimistic that he could do a decent job – certainly better than Ignatieff – but so far, it has been nothing but setback after setback. He’ll probably stick it out until the next General Election, but it looks like he’s already finished.
  • Back to the NDP, after years and years of living in Montreal but never having any hope of my candidate winning, I’m kind of amazed that someone has done it. Again, though, if the NDP over-estimate the significance of this victory they’re going to be in trouble. I’ve almost only ever voted NDP, but party had pretty much lost me as a supporter over the past two or three years. The NDP’s foreign policy is nothing more than naive and pandering, and the fact that they have done nothing to truly address their chronic problems in Quebec is more than frustrating – at this point it smacks of a mix of disrespect and fear. I hope they can get over it – and the first step would be a radical re-thinking of their traditional (and idiotic) strong-centralist federalism. It does them no good and a lot of harm.

From Torontoist:

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From Torontoist:

Bon Cop, Bad Cop. A great video showing some, ahem, experienced protest leaders strongly suggesting that some supposed fellow protesters drop their rocks and cease being violent… until they figure out that the “protesters” in question are most likely police provocateurs trying to rile things up and create a riot. There isn’t any firm evidence at this point that the three “bad guys” were really cops, but check out the video – it’s pretty clear that they were when you see the pathetic “takedown” performed by the uniformed police once the ruse was up.

Personally I’m not surprised – I’ve been a witness to a couple of “riots” in my day and every single time the police were the aggressors.

The results of Quebec’s election

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The results of Quebec’s election

yesterday confounded all predictions and proved to be among the most interesting elections in contemporary Canadian history. I think this will prove to be a watershed election for both Quebec and Canada, though I am not sure how things will play out.

Some impressions:

  • It’s annoying to note the interesting showing by the Green Party and then to remember all of the coverage that the foundation of Québec Solidaire received in the press.
  • I think that Charest is secretly disappointed that he didn’t lose his seat last night. He’s never had either a taste or a feel for Quebec politics, having ended up there via a series of events beyond his control.
  • Plus, there’s not much Charest can do to fix things in the PLQ. I think the main reason for their lack of success last night is that Charest will never be seen as anything but a strong Federalist, whereas his predecessors (i.e., Bourassa) retained a great deal of aloofness towards Ottawa.
  • I think the socially left side of the PQ has gone beyond what the non-Montreal voter in Quebec will accept – and mixed with the emphasis on civic (not ethnic) nationalism that Parizeau’s “money and the ethnic vote” comment in 1995 provoked, sealed their fate.
  • I don’t think we can escape the fact that Boisclair’s being gay had an impact on the results. I don’t think Quebecois outside of Montreal are homophobic in general – far from it – but this part of his persona cemented the close identification of Boisclair with Montreal, which most Quebecois seem to believe is completely out of step with the rest of the Province. So it wasn’t an anti-gay vote but an anti-Montreal vote. Being gay just reinforced Boisclair’s Montreal-ness.
  • I don’t think either the PQ or the PLQ will be capable of truly addressing the problems that surfaced for them in this election, at least not for some time.
  • I think we get a Federal election sooner than later following this result, if only because the Quebec voters have clearly demonstrated that they’re willing to experiment with new things. Right now, I would predict a Harper majority.
  • Paul Wells made a great point in his blog last night: “…how does Stéphane Dion feel, knowing that 46 Quebec seats are now held by Liberals who agree with Stephen Harper on federalism and 42 Adéquistes who agree with him on everything else?”

Overall, the whole thing was as stunning political theater as we’ve seen in years. There are still too many wildcards in the deck to know how this will play out, but I suspect that notwithstanding the wild results, Quebec won’t have to go to an election for some time. Only time will tell.

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