Entries Tagged 'Canadian Politics' ↓

yesterday confounded all predictions and proved to be among the most interesting elections in contemporary Canadian history. I think this will prove to be a watershed election for both Quebec and Canada, though I am not sure how things will play out.

Some impressions:

• It’s annoying to note the interesting showing by the Green Party and then to remember all of the coverage that the foundation of Québec Solidaire received in the press.
• I think that Charest is secretly disappointed that he didn’t lose his seat last night. He’s never had either a taste or a feel for Quebec politics, having ended up there via a series of events beyond his control.
• Plus, there’s not much Charest can do to fix things in the PLQ. I think the main reason for their lack of success last night is that Charest will never be seen as anything but a strong Federalist, whereas his predecessors (i.e., Bourassa) retained a great deal of aloofness towards Ottawa.
• I think the socially left side of the PQ has gone beyond what the non-Montreal voter in Quebec will accept - and mixed with the emphasis on civic (not ethnic) nationalism that Parizeau’s “money and the ethnic vote” comment in 1995 provoked, sealed their fate.
• I don’t think we can escape the fact that Boisclair’s being gay had an impact on the results. I don’t think Quebecois outside of Montreal are homophobic in general - far from it - but this part of his persona cemented the close identification of Boisclair with Montreal, which most Quebecois seem to believe is completely out of step with the rest of the Province. So it wasn’t an anti-gay vote but an anti-Montreal vote. Being gay just reinforced Boisclair’s Montreal-ness.
• I don’t think either the PQ or the PLQ will be capable of truly addressing the problems that surfaced for them in this election, at least not for some time.
• I think we get a Federal election sooner than later following this result, if only because the Quebec voters have clearly demonstrated that they’re willing to experiment with new things. Right now, I would predict a Harper majority.
• Paul Wells made a great point in his blog last night: “…how does Stéphane Dion feel, knowing that 46 Quebec seats are now held by Liberals who agree with Stephen Harper on federalism and 42 Adéquistes who agree with him on everything else?”

Overall, the whole thing was as stunning political theater as we’ve seen in years. There are still too many wildcards in the deck to know how this will play out, but I suspect that notwithstanding the wild results, Quebec won’t have to go to an election for some time. Only time will tell.

well-placed sarcasm about Jean Lapierre’s resignation from Parliament. On a more serious note, whether or not Martin Cauchon steps up to take back his old seat in Outremont will be an important indicator of the current health of the Liberal Party with respect to the Martin/Chretien (or is that a Trudeau/Turner?) split.

with rapt attention as my (mildly) preferred candidate Bob Rae looked like he was gaining some early momentum only to see it collapse in very short order. The winner, of course, was Stephane Dion, and as Paul Wells has summarized this morning, most of the media reaction is focusing on Dion’s negatives in Quebec.

While they aren’t all wrong - Dion does have significant problems in his home province even among federalists - I think the pundits are, for the most part, making the same error that they have been making for quite a while with respect to Quebec voter behaviour.

In fact, a leader’s or candidate’s positives/negatives on Quebec nationalism are only about half of the story, if that. As important - nah, MORE important, truth be told - is where the candidate stands in terms of policy. And on this front, even a Dion that’s despised for his Clarity Act may be able to succeed in bringing Quebeckers back in his direction. Quebec voters need candidates who are socially progressive in nature, and environmentally conscious, and I predict they’ll overlook a lot of Dion’s negatives on the “unity file” if they hear the right things on other policy issues.

In other words - it’s a non-starter to analyze a candidate’s potential in Quebec by only looking at the nationalism side of things.

I should also say that I have always thought that sovereigntists should welcome and embrace the Clarity Act - which will be their single greatest source of legitimacy should a referendum ever succeed

morning, but I’m already moving - specifically, I’m sitting in a conference room at a hotel here in Ottawa listening in on the Alternative Telecommunications Policy Forum. There are a lot of very strong thinkers and activists here - people whose names I’ve been hearing and whose papers I’ve been reading for years. I’ll be reporting back here with any findings I have in the next few hours.

via organizer/activist Michael Lenczner: mtl3p: Presenting CivicAccess.ca / AccèsCivique.ca. See the website here: http://civicaccess.ca/ (plus the launch announcement).

have been responsible for some huge shifts in the advocacy landscape in Canada related to copyright, file sharing, DRM, and related issues in the past few months, and yesterday they moved the goalposts again with the creation of the Canadian Music Creators Coalition. Check out the names of CMCC members: it’s a who’s who of established and rising stars of the Canadian (and international) music scene including Sarah McLachlan, Dave Bidini, Andrew Cash, Sloan, and the Barenaked Ladies among many others. [via Michael Geist]